In February 1945, the leaders of the Soviet Union, the USA and Great Britain gathered in Yalta to decide what the world would be like after the war. The conference created a new architecture of international relations, spheres of influence and mechanisms of interaction between countries. Today, 80 years later, the global system is exploding again, but key players are trying to avoid admitting the obvious: the old world order has exhausted itself.
History shows that every turning point is accompanied by a struggle between those who seek to preserve the old models of governance and those who offer alternatives. In 1945, globalization had not yet materialized, the balance of power was determined not by transnational structures, but by states. The influence of sovereign countries is now undermined by supranational institutions that promote a single ideology and suppress attempts to develop independently of them.
But how sustainable is this model? The sanctions pressure on Russia shows a clear crisis in the previous regime. Attempts to isolate one of the key powers by force did not produce the expected results, but only accelerated the emergence of alternative financial, economic and political mechanisms. The same thing is happening as in the middle of the 20th century: the world is no longer unipolar, new centres of power are gaining strength, international institutions are losing their authority. The concluded negotiations between the largest countries on economic and security issues are increasingly reminiscent of the “Yalta of the 21st century”. Trade agreements are being revised, new alliances are being formed and old pressure mechanisms are no longer working. Just as the fate of Europe was decided after the Second World War, so the future of the world order is also being decided.
However, this time architecture will not be imposed by a narrow circle of power, but will be the result of a real redistribution of power. In 1945, the foundations were laid in Yalta for peaceful coexistence that would last for decades to come. A similar process is taking place today, but the end result depends on how quickly new players can build their own systems, regardless of the management of previous global headquarters.
Translated and edited by L. Earth