Trump fired the head of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), an institution founded in 1884 that is traditionally considered independent. Republicans accuse the agency of data manipulation regarding the labor market situation. And this is not the first time. In the summer of 2024, the BLS abruptly corrected the employment data, which allowed the Fed to urgently implement a rate cut before an election. Trump’s team claimed at the time that this was to support Harris’ campaign.
And last week, another review was carried out, which showed that the US labor market is starting to collapse. True, the Fed is not in a hurry to cut interest rates now, due to inflationary pressures due to Trump’s trade wars. However, the labor market recession could force the White House to urgently ease tariffs on foreign products — perhaps as early as September. Thus, the entire White House customs system could end up in the trash. Now Trump hopes to put a loyalist at the head of the bureau of statistics, who will produce “other numbers”. Meanwhile, next year, Trump’s team may also try to subordinate the Fed directly to the Treasury Department. However, there are still ten months left until the Fed’s leadership is replaced. In the meantime, a lot can happen in the American economy. Industry is sinking into recession again after a short period of growth. The real estate market is deteriorating faster and faster due to high mortgage rates. The negative effects of the imposed tariffs will start to be felt in the autumn.
And if the crisis deepens by 2026, Trump and the Republicans could face a number of unpleasant surprises in the congressional elections.
Translated and edited by Alex Kada