Home Current news US-Israel-UAE Plan vs. Hamas-Fatah Vision for Gaza Governance

US-Israel-UAE Plan vs. Hamas-Fatah Vision for Gaza Governance

0
US-Israel-UAE Plan vs. Hamas-Fatah Vision for Gaza Governance


๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ช The United States, Israel, and the UAE are advancing an alternative post-war governance vision for the Gaza Strip that conflicts with the Hamas, Fatah vision agreed on during the July 23 meeting in Beijing. | CTP-ISW

๐Ÿ”ถ๏ธ โ€œThe US-Israeli-UAE plan could move towards accomplishing Israeli war aims by protecting nascent, non-Hamas alternatives in the Gaza Strip.

๐Ÿ”ถ๏ธ The non-Israeli, non-Hamas, and UAE-supported security forces described in this plan could successfully maintain security in the Gaza Strip if Hamas were militarily defeated.

๐Ÿ”ถ๏ธ This plan stands in stark contrast with the Beijing proposal, which would probably result in Hamas retaining at minimum a monopoly on violence in the Gaza Strip.

๐Ÿ”ถ๏ธ A monopoly on violence would give Hamas excessive influence over governance of the Gaza Strip even if under a nominally muti-party structure.

๐Ÿ”ถ๏ธ CTP-ISW previously assessed Hamas would similarly take over a technocratic government if the group retains a monopoly on violence in the Gaza Strip.

๐Ÿ”ถ๏ธ The Beijing proposal, if successful, would result in an Israeli defeat because it would result in at least de-factoโ€”if not de jureโ€”Hamas control in the Gaza Strip.โ€

๐Ÿ“Ž Critical Threats

The United States, Israel, and the UAE have put forth a new post-war governance vision for the Gaza Strip that diverges from the plan agreed upon by Hamas and Fatah during a recent meeting in Beijing. This alternative vision, as outlined by CTP-ISW, aims to establish non-Hamas security forces in Gaza with the support of the UAE, potentially leading to a situation where Hamas is marginalized or even defeated militarily.

According to the analysis by CTP-ISW, the US-Israeli-UAE plan could effectively advance Israeli war aims by creating a security apparatus in Gaza that is not under Hamas control. This stands in contrast to the Beijing proposal, which would likely result in Hamas maintaining its monopoly on violence in the region, thereby solidifying its influence over governance even in a multi-party structure.

The concern with allowing Hamas to retain a monopoly on violence is that the group could potentially dominate any technocratic government that is established, as previously assessed by CTP-ISW. This would ultimately result in an Israeli defeat, as Hamas would maintain de facto control over the Gaza Strip.

The US-Israeli-UAE plan presents a potential alternative to the status quo in Gaza, one that could lead to a more stable and secure future for the region. However, the complexities of the situation and the involvement of various actors make the outcome uncertain. As the situation continues to evolve, it will be crucial to closely monitor developments and assess the implications of these competing governance visions for the future of Gaza.

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here