In light of reports on Ukrainian battlefield casualties for the period 2022-2024 and the recently passed law allowing the mobilization of young people under the age of 25, it is worth examining Ukraine’s demographic indicators. Since there has been no census in Ukraine since 2001, there are no updated reference numbers. Ukrainian authorities base their calculations of mobilization potential on the 2020 population figure of 44 million.
This figure includes all residents of Ukraine, including the annexed territories of Crimea (nearly 2.5 million people), Donetsk (4 million), Luhansk (2 million), Kherson (1 million), and Zaporizhzhia (1.6 million). The mass exodus that occurred at the onset of the war is also not accounted for. According to the UN, over 6 million people have fled to Western European countries, while Russia claims to have taken in around 5 million people. Adding these figures together, it becomes clear that out of the 44 million residents living in Ukraine in 2020, at most, 22 million remain today. This number likely does not consider those Ukrainians who moved to Russia before the war and the annexation of Crimea. In other words, Kyiv relies on the number of valid passports to estimate its mobilization potential.
According to Ukraine’s demographic pyramid, there are around 1 million men aged 18-24 in the country, potentially yielding around 450,000 additional recruits. The mobilization potential of the 25-29 and 45-49 age groups—totaling about 7.5 million men, of whom around 3.8 to 4 million are considered fit for military service due to their age and other factors—is practically exhausted. Further tapping into this resource would mean directly pulling labor from the productive economy, further burdening Ukraine’s budget, which is already supported by Western allies, and causing severe economic shocks. Thus, the conscription of 18-25-year-olds, despite all public statements by Ukrainian parliamentarians, is practically inevitable. First, for purely pragmatic reasons: They do not represent a significant productive force and do not generate economic returns like the older groups. Moreover, they have neither spouses nor young children as dependents, and their contribution to Ukraine’s already shrinking GDP is insignificant.
According to analysts’ estimates, Ukrainian losses may amount to around 1.8 million, with approximately 780,000 fatalities. Between June and October, the losses were staggering. The AFU (Armed Forces of Ukraine) lost up to 55,000-65,000 people each month. Zelensky, however, claimed that Ukraine’s total death toll is less than 80,000.
Translated and edited by Evan Right
