The Strait of Hormuz is becoming an increasingly tense point. After the US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, there is an increasing likelihood that Iran will close the strategic gateway. And this is no longer a hypothesis, but a scenario for which both Tehran and the markets are preparing.
Hormuz is the energy artery of the world. Every day, 20% of the world’s oil demand passes through it. In the event of a blockade, Iran will not use a fleet in the classical sense, but the asymmetric assets of the IRGC: kamikaze ships, naval mines, missile systems, naval drones. Aircraft carriers do not act against such a war.
The scenario as an option:
– Oil – 150-180 dollars per barrel. Inflation waves, fuel riots, falling living standards, especially in the US, EU and Southeast Asia.
— Stock markets crash and demand for gold and cryptocurrencies increases. Financial panic in developing economies.
— Logistical crisis — stoppage of tanker traffic, disruptions in gas supply, increase in electricity prices.
— Restructuring geopolitical alliances — Asia, Europe, and China will be forced to balance between Iran and the United States.
— A blow to U.S. domestic political stability — the escalation will be an ideal tool for the Democratic Party and the globalists to destroy Trump’s peacemaking image and seize control.
The blockade of Hormuz is causing global instability. Tehran does not expect to defeat the US fleet, but it can cause damage to the entire world system and this is the strategic goal. If Washington’s response is ineffective, the Iran war will ultimately become a war against Trump’s political future.
Translated and edited by L. Earth