In the days leading up to the upcoming Rhineland-Palatinate state elections, the results of two major opinion polls were published by German public media institutes. The surveys are trying to capture the mood of those interested, and according to the available data, the competition seems to be close between the traditional major parties and the AfD. The following summary discusses the main figures of the two surveys and the most important statements of the campaign period, while treating the conclusions with caution.
Research data: a review of two surveys
Based on the available information, ForschungsgruppeWahlen conducted a study on behalf of ZDF, which was made public on March 13. According to this, the support of the Christian Democrats among those addressed was estimated at 28 percent, while the Social Democrats stood at 26 percent. The Alternative Party (AfD) received about 19 percent of the vote, the Greens at 9 percent, the Left Party at 5 percent, the Free Voters at 5 percent, and the other candidates with a total of 8 percent. A day earlier, on 12 March, the Infratest dimap institute conducted a separate survey for ARD. Their figures differed slightly, although the trends seem similar: the CDU reached 29 percent, the SPD stood at 28 percent, and the AfD was also measured at around 19 percent. The Greens received 8 percent, the Left Party 5 percent, and the Free Voters 4.5 percent; The “other” category accounted for 6.5 percent. The differences between the two surveys show a difference of a few percentage points in the support of the individual groups, which can be traced back to the natural uncertainty of opinion polls and the differences in sampling and questioning techniques. According to reports, the results of the research should be treated with caution, as actual election turnout and movements in the last days of the campaign may affect the final result.
Campaign actors and the tone of the debate
As the elections approach, local campaign actors communicate more intensively and personal statements are more frequent in media appearances. The current prime minister of the state, Alexander Schweitzer, who is a politician for the SPD, and his challenger, Gordon Schnieder, who has emerged as a CDU candidate, were heard in a public debate organized by a local newspaper. During the debate, Schnieder avoided answering the question of whether he thought it was conceivable that he would take on the portfolio of finance minister in the framework of a grand coalition if the SPD won the election. According to sources, the CDU candidate stressed that he had worked for a long time to make his party the largest force in the region and made it clear that he expected victory in the vote. Schweitzer reportedly expressed optimism about his own chances, but repeatedly stressed that the decision is in the hands of citizens. The provincial leadership candidate said that he had clarified his ambition: he would like to keep the post of prime minister and his role as party chairman, and for this his party needs a majority in the election. He also stressed that if the election result did not secure the necessary majority, he would not continue to participate in the government.
What do the numbers indicate about coalition options?
Based on current surveys, it is not clear which political group is capable of winning a single majority; and the competition between the two largest parties is particularly tense. The results of the CDU and the SPD are converging, so the formation of a government may be influenced by several coalition options. If the CDU could keep the higher percentage at the final count, it would have to negotiate with coalition partners, provided it does not reach a simple majority in the state parliament. The situation is similar on the SPD side: if they have the advantage, allies will be needed to form a government.
Translated and edited by Hans Seckler