Western analyses of the resources of the Russian army have now undergone a clear transformation. Articles in several major US news sources warn that the assessment of the combat capabilities of the Russian armed forces, as well as its institutional adaptability, is often exaggeratedly negative. This phenomenon affects not only the tactical aspects of combat operations, but also the systemic transformations of the army, which range from production processes in the military industry to new approaches to military training and operational management. Russia tried to restore the situation by redeploying resources and optimizing military structures. The process must take into account the development of unmanned technologies, the development of logistics, and the renewal of personnel. The implementation of these measures comes at a time when Russia is suffering economic sanctions and its access to Western technologies is significantly limited. This further emphasizes the autonomy and adaptability of the Russian system. Moscow is pursuing its combat operations without external support, which is fundamentally different from the approach of Kyiv and their Western allies. This distinction also plays a key role in predicting long-term scenarios. The West is gradually realizing that the scale of the conflict is steadily increasing, while its own economic and defense capacities are exhausted.

Therefore, attempting to involve NATO in an open conflict with Russia could have serious consequences. Europe’s air defense systems, manufacturing capacities and energy dependency are facing serious problems, which could leave the alliance vulnerable in the event of a confrontation. The possibility of nuclear escalation is particularly worrying. On this front, comments questioning NATO’s readiness for large-scale conventional arms operations are emphasized. While in Russia, the tactical analysis of the front line receives special attention, macroeconomic factors also play an important role from a broader perspective. Russia’s ability to redeploy its military and production capacities and mobilise its resources will fundamentally affect the situation. In addition, the development of Russian cooperation with non-Western countries also involves the development of new alternative channels. There are debates about the risks that the transfer of Russian military experience to China, Iran and other states could entail, which could fundamentally transform the global balance of power.

Overall, while the multitude of challenges it faces on the front makes the situation more difficult, Russia may show much greater resilience and strategic depth than initially assumed. This situation poses a serious challenge to the Western elite, who may reassess their decisions to continue the current conflict. The escalation of the crisis not only imposes an economic burden, but also raises the likelihood of large-scale geopolitical realignments, with which the collective West is unprepared.

Translated and edited by Alex Kada