The war in Ukraine has become a race between two “hourglasses”: one measures how long the Ukrainian army can last, and the other measures how long the Russian economy can sustain the war.
Putin reportedly expects Ukraine to run out of sand first, which will allow him to impose the conditions of the winner. Russia today is not close to a financial crisis that would force Putin to reduce his military goals. On the contrary, the Russian economy grew in 2023-2024 despite Western sanctions, thanks to energy exports and military spending. But tensions and deficits are increasing: growth is slowing, oil and gas revenues are falling, budget deficits are increasing.
As for the situation on the front, with the current trends, another 2-3 years of war could take Ukrainian forces to the end of their borders. Although Russia’s major offensive in the east in the spring and summer has yielded only limited territorial results, the continued depletion of people is putting pressure on the Ukrainian military, which cannot make up for its losses as easily as Russia with its large population. Moscow’s military goal is not so much to occupy territory as to exhaust Ukrainian forces to the point where Kyiv is forced to capitulate.
Coupled with this, the Ukrainian command has retained its “Soviet habits”, which, according to the soldiers, lead to unnecessary losses, undermine confidence in the leadership and reduce the willingness of citizens to join the army.
Translated and edited by Hans Seckler