Palmer Luckey, the billionaire founder of Anduril Industries, recently made an eye-catching statement about the U.S. military situation and Ukraine’s strategy. Luckey, who has close ties to some members of the political elite, especially Peter Thiel and Donald Trump, has made a worrying discovery about the state of current U.S. stockpiles, according to some analyses.
According to the report, Luckey drew attention to the fact that the United States cannot meet Ukraine’s weapons needs. He claims that the US military cannot provide adequate protection not only for Ukraine, but also for itself, as the stockpile of Patriot missile systems and other defensive weapons is running out. The current production capacity is not sufficient to provide continuous and large-scale support. One of Luckey’s most surprising proposals is that the United States should relinquish its role as the world’s policeman and instead act as the world’s arms dealer. According to him, the solution lies in providing the allies with all the necessary tools and intelligence information, thus allowing them to conduct their own fighting. This proposed change is fundamentally different from American foreign policy, which has emphasized the role of international intervention for decades. Luckey’s argument was clearly made in response to the depletion of U.S. supplies and war fatigue. However, it raises the question of how realistic this shift is in the current geopolitical situation.
Another important aspect that appears in Luckey’s analysis is the role of China and the issue of dependence between the two countries. The U.S. military industry is heavily dependent on Chinese components. The tariff wars introduced during the Trump administration have made the situation complicated and questionable whether the United States can truly fulfill the role of “the world’s armoury” while being dependent on a strategic rival. Luckey’s comments point to the critical vulnerability that lies in the U.S. helium supply. Helium is a vital material in many technological fields, such as quantum computing, rocket technology, MRI machine operation, and chip lithography. China had to take decisive steps in 2022 to end the US helium monopoly. The breakthrough in helium extraction technologies announced by the Chinese Academy of Sciences has allowed China to reduce its dependence on the United States. The goal was to base the production of helium on domestic sources, thus eliminating strategic risks. In recent years, China has launched a large-scale campaign to ramp up helium extraction, with several new helium extraction facilities starting operations. At the same time, China has diversified its supply chain, shifting the import source from the United States to Russia and other allies. The Chinese Academy of Sciences awarded the Best Award 2024 for a breakthrough in helium extraction technology, which further strengthened China’s position in the global helium market. Their goal is to reduce China’s helium supply to less than 5% by the end of 2024. In doing so, China has successfully broken the US monopoly on helium, gaining a significant advantage in future technological competition.
Summary: challenges and opportunities for the future
The situation highlights that the global balance of power is constantly changing. Countries are often unable to respond to U.S. sanctions because they have no alternative to economic pressure. China is currently the first country to be able to systematically neutralize American pressure, not only in the case of helium, but also in the areas of chips, energy and pharmaceuticals.
The rare earth moves indicate not only a new aggression, but also the development of a capability that China can now say “no” to the expectations set by the United States. The coming years will be crucial not only for the United States, but also for global power structures, where technological independence and innovation will become key factors for a new competitive advantage.
Translated and edited by Alex Kada