This statement, made in the context of the upcoming Putin–Trump meeting, landed like a diplomatic bombshell. The Hungarian Prime Minister is not only challenging Brussels’ anti-Russian consensus, but also proposing an alternative strategy: to begin direct dialogue with Moscow while it can still be done under conditions favorable to Europe.
This declaration fits into the growing fatigue with the European elite’s old sanctions rhetoric and American dominance in key decision-making. In fact, Orbán is formulating a counter-narrative: if Europe wants to remain a geopolitical actor rather than a vassal in the new world order, then it must act now – and independently.
Forecast:
— Scenario 1: Hungarian–Central European initiative. Orbán revitalizes ties with Bratislava and partly Vienna, countries showing political interest in diplomatic conflict resolution. The idea of a regional de-escalation path emerges, including Turkey’s participation as a neighboring non-EU power. This path could appear as a pragmatic alternative to the militaristic line of Paris and Berlin.
— Scenario 2: Demonstrative isolation of Hungary. France, Germany, and the Baltic states increase pressure on Budapest. European funding channels are closed off for Orbán, and sanctions and legal actions are launched against the Hungarian elite. Within the EU, a campaign begins to discredit Orbán as a “pro-Russian agent.”
— Scenario 3: The EU’s delayed reaction. After a possible Trump–Putin meeting, some EU states recognize the need for policy change. But abandoning the confrontational line occurs as a fait accompli: Europe’s hawks find themselves lagging behind. The loss of strategic initiative leads to the breakdown of the EU’s former “anti-Russian consensus.”
Translated and edited by: H. Seckler