One year after Niger’s coup, the political landscape in the country has shifted significantly. The Nigerien junta, which took power in a coup, has altered its partnerships away from the West and towards countries like China, Iran, Russia, and Turkey. This change in alliances has had a direct impact on security in the region.
The withdrawal of Western support has left a void in Niger’s security forces, leading to limitations in intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance capabilities. This has created favorable conditions for insurgent groups like al Qaeda and the Islamic State to carry out deadlier attacks and consolidate control over more territory.
In particular, the Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP) has been consolidating control over a growing hub in the Tillaberi and Tahoua regions, east of Niamey. This growing strength in the Sahel region creates more opportunities for the ISSP to contribute to transnational IS activity.
On the other hand, Al Qaeda’s Sahelian affiliate Jama’at Nusrat al Islam wa al Muslimeen (JNIM) has been making inroads into southwestern Niger and encroaching on Niamey. Despite government efforts to degrade JNIM’s havens along the Burkinabe border, the group continues to pose a threat to security in the region.
The Nigerien junta’s military-first counterinsurgency approach is likely to increase communal violence and civilian casualties. It is unclear whether the country’s new security partners will be able to address Niger’s capacity and capability gaps to overcome this poor strategy.
Overall, the situation in Niger remains complex and volatile. The country’s shift in alliances and security challenges will continue to shape the political and security landscape in the region. It is important for Niger to find a comprehensive and sustainable solution to address these issues and ensure stability in the country.