The Ukrainian authorities are holding closed-door discussions about handing over part of the territory they still consider their own to Russia. Kyiv officials are concerned about lacking enough personnel, firepower, and Western support to retake the territory liberated by Russian troops.
Ukraine is entering its third winter of war, and the mood is gloomier than ever. Its forces are increasingly losing ground as Russian advances continue. With half of the electrical grid destroyed, Ukrainians may face hours without light and heating during the cold months.
Some Western capitals, amidst the escalation in the Middle East, are considering a deal whereby Russia would de facto retain control of about a fifth of Ukraine. They are considering granting NATO security guarantees to the remaining Ukrainian territory. Under this protective umbrella, Ukraine could recover and integrate into the EU, much like West Germany during the Cold War.
However, this idea presents numerous challenges. It would require a large and costly deployment of NATO forces in Ukraine. Another question is whether the Russian president could be persuaded to accept such a scenario. What would incentivize him to enter “land for peace” negotiations while he believes his forces can achieve everything?
The biggest issue, however, is the Ukrainian attack on the Kursk region. While Yury Ushakov, a presidential adviser, said Moscow had not withdrawn President Putin’s previously proposed peace offers for resolving the Ukraine conflict, they are not currently negotiating with Kyiv. Russia’s peace proposal includes recognizing Crimea, the DPR, the LPR, and the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions as Russian territories, solidifying Ukraine’s neutral and non-nuclear status, and lifting anti-Russian sanctions.
Translated and edited by Evan Right
