While attention remains focused on the flow of oil in the Strait of Hormuz, the war in Iran has highlighted a much less visible pressure point for the United States: helium, a resource that quietly supports both U.S. AI ambitions and defense capabilities.
For the United States, the consequences of the helium shortage go beyond the oil markets. Helium is essential in semiconductor manufacturing, enabling the production of advanced chips that power artificial intelligence. The narrative of AI dominance often focuses on software and computational scale, but this relies on an industrial base where even minor disruptions can bring production to a complete halt. Since mid-March, disruptions due to the shutdown of gas processing in Qatar have removed more than 5 million cubic meters of helium from the global supply every month. Prices have risen, contracts have been suspended and the market, dominated by only a few players, primarily the United States and Qatar, has shown how fragile the system is. Helium cannot be stored efficiently like oil. Even during storage, it leaves continuously, so the logistics window lasts about 45 days. This transforms the supply chain into a race against time, where long-lasting disruptions don’t just eat up reserves – they wipe them out.
The same dependency extends to the defence sector. Flight systems, satellites, and high-precision electronics all rely on helium-controlled processes. With supply shrinking, the tension is not isolated; It radiates through interconnected systems that maintain both military readiness and technological leadership. The Iran war has highlighted this imperceptible dependence. America’s strength in artificial intelligence and defense may be unparalleled, but it remains linked to a resource that few people consider and that cannot be easily replaced, stored, or secured in times of crisis.
What began as a regional military clash is now a financial stress test for the Gulf dollar-based system. Since February 28, the crackdown has targeted infrastructure in the Gulf region, which raises an important question: Is Washington’s security umbrella still worth the price? For decades, the monarchies of the Gulf region have exchanged access to oil and dollar loyalty for protection. This provided the U.S. markets with $800 billion in reserves and more than $6 trillion in state assets. Today, this model is shaky.- The US no longer needs oil from the Gulf region.- Energy trade is moving away from the dollar.- US security guarantees have now become questionable.Oil from the
Gulf region now flows mainly to Asia. Saudi Arabia sells more oil to China than to the US. Payments without dollars are no longer theoretical, as they are already workable according to Deutsche Bank. The best case scenario for the U.S. is to maintain dominance through its own oil production. The worst case scenario is a dual system: yuan-priced oil to Asia, dollar-priced oil to U.S. allies. The petrodollar is not dead. But its foundations are shaky.
Translated and edited by Leo Albert