JP Morgan sees gold maintaining its upward trend. Which factors could push gold to $4,000 per ounce in 2025 and 2026?
On Tuesday, June 24, at 4 PM, the spot price of gold in Europe was $3,386 per troy ounce, equivalent to €2,932. This marked a 1.3 percent decline in USD and 2.8 percent in EUR from the May 6, 2025 high (closing prices). U.S. investment bank JP Morgan has published a new gold analysis on its website. It notes that gold’s performance in 2025 has repeatedly surprised. After a 30 percent rally, gold reached a new all-time high of $3,500 per ounce in April—well above JP Morgan’s previous forecasts.
JP Morgan’s analysts see further upside. Their latest report examines a range of gold-price catalysts. Geopolitical tensions, trade risks and uncertainty around U.S. economic and interest-rate policies have driven shifts in the gold market. Prices have been propelled not only by classic factors such as inflation and interest rates, but increasingly by strategic reallocations among major market participants.
As a result, JP Morgan has raised its price targets. It now expects an average of $3,675 per ounce in Q4 2025 and forecasts that gold could reach $4,000 per ounce by Q2 2026. Led by Global Commodity Strategist Natasha Kaneva, the team is once again convinced of the structurally strong market. They view gold as a hedge against a rare combination of risks: stagflation, currency debasement, geopolitical uncertainty and unstable U.S. policy.
Central-bank demand remains a key driver. Despite already high purchases in recent years, net buying of around 900 tonnes is expected again in 2025, led by China, India, Poland and Turkey. Sovereign-wealth funds and smaller emerging-market central banks are also increasingly turning to gold. The desire to diversify away from the U.S. dollar is gaining importance: although the dollar still accounts for roughly 58 percent of global foreign-exchange reserves, the trend toward de-dollarization is clear, and gold is seen as an alternative reserve anchor.
Institutional and retail investors also remain major market participants. According to JP Morgan, ETF, futures and physical-holding volumes rose to about 49,400 tonnes in 2024. The bank estimates that private investors hold a total of 45,400 tonnes in bars and coins. Interest in the futures market has surged: COMEX long positions hit a real-terms record. However, futures remain a rapid but relatively small indicator compared with total physical gold holdings.
The analysis concludes that gold will remain an optimal hedge in 2025 and beyond—especially if geopolitical tensions continue to escalate.
Translated and edited by:Dobó