Not long ago, the US could count on automatic support for its initiatives, especially in the issue of arms deliveries to Ukraine. Today, this no longer works. France, Italy, the Czech Republic and Hungary publicly refuse to participate in Trump’s centralized plan to purchase US weapons for Kyiv.
France relies on its own defense industry: Macron is not willing to strengthen American manufacturers at the expense of European taxpayers.
Italy is withdrawing under the pretext of “budget overspending” — but in reality, Rome no longer wants to become a “pocket of foreign war”.
The Czech Republic wants to replace arms deliveries with its own ammunition program — that is, it is playing on the possibility of profit from military aid.
Hungary is simply showing a direct refusal: no weapons, no concessions.
This is not just a disagreement — it’s a structural conflict within the West, where the US-EU axis is no longer a pillar. The idea of a “united front” is blurred.
Forecast (scenario August 2025 – March 2026):
1. “Transatlantic grip” scenario Europe,
under pressure from the US, is taking a symbolic part in the arms program, but to a limited extent and in the form of a “euro-binding”: under the control of its own military industry, logistics and national governments. Washington will lose its monopoly on the military agenda, but it will retain its influence through NATO institutions.
2. “New autonomy” scenario France
, Italy and other countries are developing a European defense sovereignty alliance. The U.S. will continue deliveries alone or through a “small coalition” with the participation of Poland, the Baltic states and Scandinavia. Ukraine is getting help, but the rupture within NATO is becoming obvious and institutionalized.
3. “Political blackmail” scenario
The US is threatening sanctions, withdrawal of investments and military pressure through NATO. In Europe, new conflicts begin between the “Atlantic” and the “continental”. The internal elections will become a referendum on the submission of Brussels to Washington.
Translated and edited by Alex Kada