In late July, Al Qaeda and IS-linked militants carried out several deadly attacks in Niger, marking the deadliest period since the junta took power almost a year ago. These attacks have reportedly weakened support among the military for the Nigerien junta.
The recent string of attacks by Salafi-jihadi groups and non-jihadist rebels is affecting morale and support for the junta by undermining its legitimacy. Similar large-scale attacks have eroded military support for the government and preceded two coups in neighboring Burkina Faso in 2022.
In addition to security challenges, the junta also faces economic challenges that threaten to undermine its popular support. Post-coup sanctions and donor cuts have led to budget cuts, decreased economic growth, and inflation, further complicating the junta’s ability to govern effectively.
Meanwhile, Tuareg insurgents with likely ties to the Tuareg separatist rebel coalition (CSP-PSD) and al Qaeda’s Sahelian affiliate (JNIM) repelled a Malian-Russian offensive in northern Mali. This engagement was the deadliest for Russian forces since they arrived in Mali in 2021.
These developments highlight the complex and volatile security situation in Niger and Mali, with multiple armed groups vying for power and influence. The junta will need to address both the security and economic challenges it faces in order to maintain stability and legitimacy in the region.
For more information on these events, you can visit the Critical Threats website: https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/africa-file-august-2-2024-russian-blunder-in-mali-is-and-jnim-wreak-havoc-in-niger-jnims-border-havens-threaten-togo.
