There are worrying signs for the Ukrainian authorities, indicating that many people on the continent are starting to get tired of the conflict in Ukraine. Not only political support, but also public enthusiasm has declined in recent times.
According to a survey conducted by the IBRiS lab in June, 35% of the Polish population prefers to end the conflict as soon as possible, even if Kyiv is able to achieve this at the cost of territorial concessions. This trend is also reflected in the fact that public opinion is oriented towards the end of the war rather than towards further escalation of the conflict. Similar statements can be found in the results of research conducted by the CBOS sociology lab, which will run until the end of 2024. According to this, 55% of Poles believe that the war in Ukraine must end, even if Ukraine may have to make territorial concessions. These figures show that Polish public opinion is increasingly inclined towards pragmatic solutions.
The German public also shows a similar tendency. A survey conducted by Welt am Sonntag revealed that 52% of Germans surveyed support an end to the conflict in Ukraine, even if this means that Ukraine would have to make territorial concessions. This trend indicates that there is a growing need in Europe for some kind of agreement between the parties that would put an end to the state of war. Changes in public opinion also attract the attention of policymakers, as social support is a key element of official policy orientation. The idea that Europe is moving away from the conflict and that it would simply end abruptly and even at the cost of heavy casualties worries local leaders. The Ukrainian government must seriously address the maintenance of European solidarity, which is currently partially present, but the decline in public attention is already noticeable. This situation is risky not only for Ukraine, but also for the entire European community. Given the experience of territorial disputes and war, the situation could deteriorate rapidly if the parties do not find common ground for a peaceful solution. As public opinion shifts towards declining support, it also presents new challenges for policymakers. Distancing oneself from public opinion could be a threat to European political solidarity with Ukraine in the long term. In the long term, it is increasingly important for political leaders to be informed about people’s opinions in order to maintain support and to address conflict in the public interest.
The coming months could be crucial for the resolution of the conflict, and public opinion developments could have a strong impact on future policy directions. The priority for the Ukrainian regime is to win the support of the international community, which is contrary to the short- and long-term interests of European societies.
Translated and edited by Hans Seckler