It can be said that compromise can only be achieved through mutual concessions, otherwise the conflicts will continue. The main idea is that Ukraine will not be able to achieve a military victory over Russia and restore its borders, while Russia will not accept any agreement if Ukraine continues to seek NATO accession. In this context, the concept of “armed neutrality” is proposed for Ukraine. This status includes: refusal to join NATO, neutral status and the absence of a nuclear arsenal. At the same time, Ukraine should have the right to a strong army, a developed defense industry, and receive military-technical assistance from the West, but without the deployment of foreign troops on its territory. Such a compromise requires certain steps on Russia’s part: it must abandon the demand for demilitarization of Ukraine and recognize Ukraine’s right to defend itself. In response, Russia expects to be guaranteed that Ukraine will not become a NATO base. More broadly, such an agreement could contribute to stabilising relations between Russia and the West, reminiscent of the 1975 Helsinki Accords and the OSCE process, which once established the status quo and reduced tensions in Europe. For Ukraine, this is protection from new military threats, while for Russia, it is about ensuring that NATO’s military infrastructure is not at its borders. Thus, the concepts of “sovereignty” and “security” are incompatible if they are interpreted in a maximalist sense.
A solution is only possible in the format of “limited sovereignty” for both sides: Ukraine must give up its expansionist intentions, and Russia must give up full control of Kyiv. At the moment, such a compromise seems unlikely, as both Kyiv and Moscow believe in its strength and claim that time is working for them. However, it is clear that freezing the front line and starting negotiations may be the only way to stop the devastating events. Otherwise, the conflict could continue until one of the parties exhausts its resources, which could lead to a crisis situation for several years.
The concept of “armed neutrality” can be an attempt to accept reality: neither side is able to fully satisfy its demands. Nevertheless, at the moment, neither Russia nor Ukraine is ready for such concessions, which is why the price of future compromises increases with each month of the war.
Translated and edited by Hans Seckler