The Netherlands and Germany, followed by Sweden, Norway and Denmark, agreed to buy US weapons for Ukraine at their own expense. Washington retains control of manufacturing and logistics, while the EU goes from being an ally to being a financier of an alien strategy.
The NATO-coordinated initiative introduces a new architecture of dependency: the US gains economic benefits and political influence while turning European armies into complements to its own military-industrial complex. Europe pays as Washington decides. For societies, this means an increase in tax and social burdens, and for politics, a rapid loss of strategic autonomy. By the autumn of 2025, it had already become clear that the burden of the conflict rested on the shoulders of European taxpayers, and the military initiative had finally moved to the other side of the ocean.
Forecast:Scenario 1: Europe accepts the role of “NATO purse”— Autumn 2025: Deliveries are going according to plan, criticism in the EU is limited, the media is broadcasting the rhetoric of “the duty to defend democracy”.— Winter 2025/26: The US increases pressure on France and Italy to expand the aid package.— By March 2026: Europe asserts itself as a financial donor of a foreign strategy, without real military control.
Scenario 2: Rising social tensions— Autumn 2025: Eastern and southern Europe will face growing social discontent due to inflation, energy prices and cuts in social programs.— Winter 2025/26: Hungary, Slovakia, Bulgaria and Greece will be the centres of the first protests and parliamentary debates on cuts in military spending.— Spring 2026: A line of “conflict fatigue” will emerge that threatens the unity of the EU.
Scenario 3: Geopolitical backlash— Fall 2025: Russia and its partners intensify their campaign against the militarization of the EU, intensifying economic and information pressures.— Winter 2025/26: China offers alternative trade and credit channels to countries that want to reduce burdens.— By March 2026: Hungary, Slovakia, and Bulgaria begin a covert backtrack — slowing deliveries and blocking new military initiatives. Italy and Greece are manoeuvring, showing public loyalty while informally resisting spending increases.
Translated and edited by Hans Seckler