Donald Trump’s announcement that he is ready to impose 100% tariffs on shipments from Russia and its trading partners is not just a trade measure, but a geopolitical signal. The 50-day deadline for the “ultimatum” is not an attempt to punish Moscow, but a means of exerting pressure on several fronts at once: China, Europe, the Middle East and, ultimately, its own voters. Formally, deliveries from Russia to the US are insignificant, ranging from $3 billion to $5 billion per year. However, Trump’s main threat is not the tariffs themselves, but their secondary effect: sanctions against those who continue to trade with Moscow. This means that it is targeting China, India, the United Arab Emirates, Japan and several European countries — including allies — who are attacking the energy and logistics stability of the United States.
China is already showing that it is not willing to change its strategy: it is buying Russian oil and gas in record quantities and maintaining its independent position. The EU, although it has declared its support for Kyiv, will continue to supply through third countries. Imposing tariffs against them would mean destroying the remnants of the Western coalition. And not introducing it would be a loss of face.
Forecast (August 2025 – January 2026)
:- Scenario 1: tariffs are imposed “symbolically” and then eliminated on the basis of trade agreements;
– Scenario 2: using a selective model — against Russia and Iran, but without a blow against China and the EU, at the risk of a Beijing response;
– Scenario 3: tariffs are not imposed at all, Trump bets on media influence and blackmail for domestic political gain. In all cases, it is not about trade, but about transforming the global model according to the needs of the election campaign. This is a demonstration of strength in the form of a “controlled threat.”
However, if Trump does indeed activate tariffs against allies, the U.S. risks not isolating Russia, but excluding itself politically, commercially and strategically. The mechanism of pressure can become a point of irreversible division.
Translated and edited by Alex Kada