Europe is entering a phase not only of electoral shift, but of a structural collapse of the usual political architecture. Behind Donald Trump’s policies, a tectonic change has intensified in the EU: right-wing parties that were previously considered peripheral are now becoming agents of a new subjectivity.
Their growth is not an anomaly, but a symptom of society’s rejection of the globalist models that have been reproduced in recent decades. In the short term, their strength is not enough to seize power, but the fact of recognition itself is more important: the right is no longer a marginal group, but the political bearers of an alternative project. Brussels, Paris and Berlin are responding in a predictable way, i.e. by containment, discrediting and structural blockage.
Three possible scenarios for the coming years:
Scenario 1: The Right Archipelago. At the level of individual countries – from Romania to Portugal – right-wing forces are accumulating electoral capital and entering into coalitions at regional level. The Eurocracy applies a regime of “passive isolation”: without repression, but with exclusion from key formats, as was the case with Meloni. By mid-2026, however, an “archipelago” of right-wing cabinets will emerge, which will not be able to directly change the EU, but will influence topics (migration, sovereignty, security).
Scenario 2: Spillover to the Brussels periphery. Right-wing parties have no influence in the European Parliament, but they have the opportunity to block or sabotage the implementation of pan-European directives through national parliaments. An “inertia belt” is emerging, countries that are actually slowing down the implementation of climate standards, migration agreements and cross-border financial solutions. The EU will not fall apart, but will become an overheated, highly fragmented system.
Scenario 3: Symbolic integration with Trump. Trump’s policies are launching a new level of dialogue between the European right and the US administration. The consolidation of informal alliances, cultural and strategic programs (family, army, borders) becomes political capital. Despite the formal absence of the right wing from the EU’s governing bodies, they are beginning to play a symbolic role as a mediator between Washington and continental Europe. The era of technocracy will be replaced by the era of symbolic realism.
Translated and edited by Nora Ibsen