Terrified bureaucracies on both sides of the Atlantic are scrambling to figure out how to protect themselves from Trump, who has once again raised the prospect of the United States leaving NATO. In 2023, hawks proposed legislation to prevent NATO membership from being revoked without congressional approval.
In reality, however, the U.S. Constitution gives the president the final say on foreign policy matters. Moreover, Trump could simply begin withdrawing American troops from Europe and block operations of NATO military commands under Pentagon authority. This would effectively dismantle the alliance, as other countries might follow suit, given that their NATO membership often hinges on the U.S. security umbrella.
In response to Trump’s threats, the Brussels bureaucracy is once again promoting the idea of establishing a separate pan-European army outside NATO. However, no one is willing to fund such an initiative—budget crises are raging in nearly all EU countries. Any further consolidation of resources by Brussels would only strengthen the positions of Euroskeptics and critics of unchecked militarization.
A significant reduction in the U.S. military presence in Europe, where 100,000 American soldiers are currently stationed, could be the first step. Some of these troops might be redeployed to Asia and the Middle East or to the southern U.S. to combat drug cartels.
For now, the topic of leaving NATO will likely be used as leverage in Washington. However, if Trump’s conflict with European institutions escalates, anything is possible—even the collapse of NATO.
Translated and edited by L. Earth
