World War 3 is already in full swing, even if most people don’t realize it. Russia, China and their allies want to transform the current world order, which has existed under the leadership of the US since the end of World War II, from a unipolar to a multipolar order, thereby securing a larger seat at the table. The US and its allies want the unipolar status quo to prevail. World War III is unlikely to develop into a direct kinetic war between the US, Russia and China, because that could lead to nuclear Armageddon in which everyone loses.
Instead, World War 3 is playing out on different levels: proxy wars, economic wars, financial wars, cyber wars, biological wars, covert sabotage, and information wars. This is the 3rd World War. It is taking place right now and is escalating rapidly. 2025 could be the year in which the whole thing comes to a head. In my opinion, World War III is a conflict between two geopolitical blocs. The first bloc consists of the US and its allies, who are committed to the unipolar world order. I hesitate to call this bloc “the West” because the people who control it represent values that run counter to Western civilization.
A more appropriate name would be NATO & Friends. The other bloc includes Russia, China, Iran and other countries that advocate a multipolar world order. Let’s call them the BRICS+, which stands for Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa and other interested countries BRICS+ is not a perfect name, but it is an appropriate representation of the countries that advocate a multipolar world order. Some countries cannot be clearly classified into a category. I have included these countries in their own category of non-aligned. They are the main competitors of NATO & Friends and BRICS+.
Below is an approximate map of the geopolitical chessboard as I see it. Click here to enlarge it.
I believe that proxy wars will probably decide who wins World War III and gets to shape the new world order.
Proxy wars are a method in which great powers fight their battles indirectly, using smaller nations or groups as proxies rather than facing each other directly.
Great powers support, equip, and fund smaller groups or nations in a proxy war to fight against a common adversary. This support can include military training, weapons, funding, and other resources. It is crucial that the great powers do not participate directly in hostilities.
In the 3rd World War there are numerous proxy wars.
However, I believe that the wars in Taiwan, Ukraine and the Middle East will be decisive. The other proxy wars are incidental in comparison.
Unlike in Europe (Russia) or East Asia (China), there is no sophisticated nuclear power that could deter NATO & friends from more aggressive military action in the Middle East. Iran is therefore the weak link in the BRICS+ alliance, which is pushing for a multipolar world order.
Therefore, I expect NATO & Friends to make their last attempt to thwart the emergence of a multipolar world order and preserve the US-led world order in the Middle East.
The Middle East can be roughly divided into two different geopolitical groups.
The first is the United States and its allies – Israel, Turkey, Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and others.
(Although Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are members of BRICS+, their true loyalty is to the agenda of NATO & Friends).
The second group consists of Iran and its allies – the Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon, several Palestinian groups (including Hamas) and a number of militias in Iraq.
Iran is an important member of BRICS+ and a proponent of a multipolar world order. That is why Russia and China are behind Iran with economic, political and military support.
At the beginning of 2024, the geopolitical momentum in the Middle East seemed to belong to Iran and its allies.
However, that has changed recently, as the Middle East has undergone the most significant geopolitical shift in generations.
It culminated in fighters supported by Turkey, Israel and the United States overthrowing Bashar al-Assad in Syria. This was a major blow to Iran and its allies, and thus to the BRICS+ multipolar agenda.
Previously, it appeared that Turkey was moving closer to the BRICS+. But after recent events, this is now clear. Now that Turkey has won the biggest geopolitical victory for NATO and its friends in decades, there is little doubt that it is fully behind its agenda.
Turkey has become the dominant power and kingmaker in Syria, extending the influence of NATO and its friends to a new strategic area in the heart of the Middle East.
Turkey’s ambitions are likely to extend far beyond Syria. Erdogan has made no secret of his intention to create a neo-Ottoman empire. Now he has a unique opportunity to make this a reality with the help of NATO & Friends.
Turkey’s conquest of Syria is not without immense challenges. The country remains fragmented and unstable.
Armed Kurdish forces, declared enemies of Turkey, control about a third of Syria.
The Assad loyalists are concentrated in the coastal region and other parts of the country. They remain heavily armed and hostile to the new Syrian authorities.
There are remnants of ISIS that have not submitted to the new government.
And then there is the Israeli military, which has destroyed all of Syria’s formerly impressive air defense systems. The Israeli Air Force now has a free hand over the skies of Syria. Israeli tanks and soldiers have occupied new strategic parts of the country.
In short, the new Syrian authorities have a gigantic chaos to deal with. They do not have a monopoly on the use of force within Syria’s borders, and it is unlikely that they will be able to do so in a timely manner.
That is why Syria could continue to be a geopolitical black hole, taking blood and money from anyone who tries to stabilize a situation that cannot be stabilized.
Assuming Syria can be stabilized – which is a big if – who will pay for the hundreds of billions needed to rebuild the country after more than 14 years of war?
No one knows.
Turkey and, more broadly, NATO & Friends have poured champagne on the overthrow of Assad. But the celebration could end soon when they realize they’ve bitten off more than they can chew.
Turkey, the US and Israel will be responsible for the chaos in Syria, which is likely to lead to balkanization with unpredictable results.
In any case, I have little doubt that NATO & friends will seek to use growing Turkish influence to reshape the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East in their favor when the arbitrary borders (established by the Sykes-Picot Agreement of a century ago) that define most modern nation-states in the Middle East collapse.
In other words, NATO and its friends want an emerging neo-Ottoman empire to become the dominant power in the Middle East. BRICS+ wants Iran to become the dominant regional power.
No one knows who will prevail in the Middle East and thus also in the Third World War.
The situation is fluid, volatile and uncertain.
Chances are that NATO & friends in Ukraine and Taiwan will lose. I think this means that they will not be able to prevent the emergence of a multipolar world order unless they subjugate the Middle East. And they can’t do that until they overthrow the government in Iran.
While the overthrow of Assad is a setback for BRICS+, it is not a decisive defeat.
If NATO & Friends want a decisive victory in the Middle East, they must overthrow the government in Iran.
That’s why I think Iran will be the decisive battlefield of World War III.
Here is an updated geopolitical map of the Middle East and the surrounding region as I see it.
With Iran’s allies across the Middle East suffering devastating blows in 2024, the U.S., Israel, and their allies have the most favorable conditions for an attack on Iran that have existed in decades.
I suspect they won’t let this opportunity go to waste.
This could be the case in 2025.
If there is an attack on Iran, I believe it will be the decisive battle of World War III.
But it won’t be child’s play…
Unlike most other nation-states in the Middle East, Iran (known as Persia before 1935) is not an artificial construct. According to ethnicity, religion and social history, it is a nation. European bureaucrats did not invent Iran by drawing zigzag lines on a map. The map reflects the geographical reality of a country with natural, fortress-like mountain borders. In the East, the Roman Empire generally ended where the Persian Empire began.
The US and its allies have been trying to overthrow the Iranian government for over 46 years. They have tried pretty much everything except a large-scale invasion.
In short, NATO and its friends have few other cards to play against Iran.
If the US really wants to undermine the BRICS+ agenda in the Middle East, it would have to overthrow the Iranian government. To do this, they would have to wage a full-scale regional war against all of Iran’s allies and launch a ground invasion of Iran.
Remember that during the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988) – then he was a “good guy” – Saddam threw over 500,000 Iraqi soldiers through the Iranian meat grinder, had the support of the US AND the Soviet Union, and used chemical weapons on a scale not seen since World War I… and he hardly made a dent in Iran.
The reality is that if the U.S. is serious about invading Iran, it would likely demand total mobilization and the reintroduction of conscription. That probably won’t happen, but even if it did, it wouldn’t be a guarantee of a US victory.
If Iran believes that the U.S. will invade, it could also develop nuclear weapons as a deterrent within a few weeks or less. He may also already have some secretly procured nuclear weapons.
In view of these unfavorable prospects, NATO & Friends may decide to preemptively use nuclear weapons against Iran.
Iran is well aware that the US or Israel could use nuclear weapons against it. He has contingency plans for this case to ensure the survival of his government. Iran’s plans are likely to include developing its own nuclear arsenal in order to be able to respond in the same way.
Moreover, it is doubtful that Russia and China would simply sit back and do nothing if NATO and Friends gave the impression that they could nuclear-attack Iran. For example, Russia could decide to deploy nuclear weapons and Russian soldiers on Iranian soil as a deterrent.
In short, NATO & friends using nuclear weapons against Iran could lead to an unpredictable series of events that could quickly spiral out of control, so I don’t see this as a likely outcome.
The Bottom Line
NATO & friends do not have attractive options when it comes to dealing with Iran.
However, with the sun setting over the U.S.-led unipolar world order and conditions for an attack on Iran more favorable than they have been in decades, they could consider this their last chance and strike in 2025.
What will happen, and who will prevail?
Of course, no one can know for sure.
That being said, I think we can expect an escalation of tensions, which could culminate in a war with Iran in 2025.
The consequences of such a war can hardly be overestimated. A war with Iran would undoubtedly destroy all models for the energy market and cause a global economic collapse. Most people are not aware of how close we are to the abyss of a historical catastrophe. Countless millions of people have been financially ruined – or worse – in past world wars because they failed to see the big picture and take appropriate action.
Don’t be one of them.
That’s why I’ve just published an urgent new report with all the details, including what you need to do to prepare.
It’s called : The most dangerous economic crisis in 100 years… the three most important strategies you need right now.
Nick Giambruno via internationalman
Translated and edited by L.Earth